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As the example above shows, a Sino-Japanese conflict couldstart from the most unlikely scenario, where one incident builds on another andboth sides share the blame. What would President Obama do? Considering hisrecent speech at West Point, which favors tired idealism over substance anddisplayed what David Rothkopf called a rehash of Obama's "Walmart foreignpolicy," can anyone really know for sure?
如上例所示，中日冲突会从最不可能的情况下开始，一个事件贯穿于另一个事件，双方都有责任。奥巴马总统会怎么做？鉴于他最近在西点军校的演讲，充斥着陈腐的理想主义，没有什么实质内容，是戴维·罗特科普夫所谓的奥巴马“沃尔玛式外交政策”的老调重弹，谁能完全知道？
This drives to the very heart of America's rebalance toAsia and exposes a fatal flaw in its foundations. Would Obama make the case tothe American people that its men and women should give their lives to what manypundits would undoubtedly spin as a ploy to protect a bunch of rocks with afunny sounding name, rocks which most Americans could not even find on a map?Considering the President's limited political capital, with only two-and-a-halfyears left in office, would he make the case under less than clear-cutcircumstances for a conflict which many would say is not in US nationalinterests? To put the question differently: short of an unambiguous Chineseinvasion of the Senkakus, would he back Japan unconditionally? Or more broadly:under what circumstances would America come to Asia's rescue?
资料图：中国自主设计制造的舰载机
资料图:自行研发的武装直升机10号
这直指奥巴马亚洲再平衡的核心，暴露了其基础上的一个致命缺陷。奥巴马是否愿意向美国民众解释，为何美国人应该为了保护一堆名称可笑的岩石而牺牲生命，许多美国人甚至在地图上找不到这堆岩石？考虑到奥巴马有限的政治资本，在任时间只剩下两年半，他是否愿意解释为何要在形势并不明朗的情况下卷入一场许多人认为并不符合美国国家利益的冲突？换种方式来考虑这一问题：既然中国没有明确入侵尖阁列岛，奥巴马会无条件地支持日本吗？或更广泛地说：在什么样的情况下，美国会到亚洲支援？
